These forces of change: business model migration, life cycle
to long tail and rise of the micro-multinational, are now even more pronounced
because of what I like to refer to as change accelerants. There are three key
accelerants to change: Localization, Velocity of Knowledge and Learn Rate.
Localization is the ability of census metropolitan areas to
basically become self-sufficient. The key contributing enabler of localization
is open source hardware. Open source hardware is today where open source
software was in 2003 to 2005; however, open source hardware will have an even
greater impact on society than open source software. Open source hardware is
likely a decade away from becoming main stream.
Open source hardware consists of 3D printers, maker
movement, hardware hackers, shared design and the ability to make small run
manufacturing profitable … this is a huge development and a game changer. This
movement is in its infancy and the primary participants currently are crafts
people and artisans.
The most significant change that Localization will drive is
essentially business model migration for hardware based companies and
manufacturing. Manufacturing globally is going to change significantly and
migrate from hierarchy to ecology. This is such a massive change that it will
have business repercussions that are difficult to forecast and imagine today. I
have a few ideas on the trajectory of change; however, let’s keep those for a
Escalating energy and transportation costs will only add to
the importance of Localization. The world’s finite supply of energy resources
will continue to diminish. The global demand for energy is only going to
increase. Demand will be most pronounced in emerging BRIC economies and
competition for scarce resources will increase. This will drive up energy and
transportation costs and further necessitate the need for Localization.
Therefore, Localization will be the single biggest driver of
change in the global economy for the next decade.